Blog

We might be boiling in this record heat wave, but the economy is starting to cool. Inflation might be inching down, but new #JobsDay data shows a slowing job market, with some yellow flags for the care economy. Let’s dig in.

The economy added 114,000 jobs, and the overall unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. Women accounted for all of this month’s job gains, likely because of the strong gains in industries that women are segregated into such as health care.

But Latinas saw almost a full percentage point increase in their unemployment rate (to 5.4%). Today’s report also showed the Sahm Rule has been triggered, an indicator used to gauge whether we are currently in a recession. It’s a technical measure based on unemployment: if the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate is at least 0.5 percentage points higher than its lowest point in the previous 12 months, that triggers the Sahm Rule. This suggests we could currently be in a recession (though @Claudia_Sahm – the rule’s namesake – has doubts). However for Black women, this threshold was met months ago, as we reported last month.

When economic analysis centers Black women, we understand more about how the economy is – or isn’t – working, and what gaps must be fixed so Black women can succeed. And #BlackWomenBest teaches us that policies that help support Black women, support everyone.

We’ve said it before and we’ll keep saying it: Women’s economic stability and success depend on a thriving care economy. Women do two-thirds of unpaid care work – with too few support policies – and hold the bulk of paid care jobs, at wages that are far too low.

That’s a big reason why women’s labor force participation is so much lower than men’s, and also tends to drop in the summer when schools are out and child care can be harder to come by. In July, women’s labor force participation was 11.6 points lower than men’s.

Since the massive disruptions of the pandemic’s onset in 2020, the job market overall has seen a remarkably steady recovery. But the data also show just how fragile our care economy is, and suggest the difference that the right investments could make.

Compared to their February 2020 levels, nonfarm jobs are up more than 4.2%. In construction – thanks in part to huge federal investments in infrastructure – jobs are up nearly 8.5%.

Meanwhile, care jobs – which are disproportionately held by women of color – have been much slower to recover, and that recovery has been wildly uneven. Home health care jobs were still underwater two years ago, but have shot up in recent months, now 15% above their pre-pandemic level. Clearly we need home care workers, but with typical pay still far below a living wage, long-term careers are a challenge.

The picture is dimmer for child care jobs, which were lagging the overall jobs recovery even before the child care funding cliff in September 2023, and are now just 1.8% above their February 2020 level.

Even more concerning, nursing & residential care employment is still down nearly 2.5% from February 2020. This could signal a change in how older Americans prefer to receive care, but staffing shortages at care facilities undermine the safety and quality of care for patients and residents, and contribute to burnout and high turnover.

Care jobs are not working for care workers – and it’s taking a toll on our whole economy. Policymakers must do more to invest in care. #CareCantWait

Read our full analysis of today’s Jobs Report on Twitter.

Click to open the full tweet thread in a new window.