This month, the future landscape of abortion access for millions of women in the United States changed overnight. In seven states, voters chose to protect or strengthen reproductive rights and abortion access. These states join six others where abortion has recently seen resounding wins when tested at the ballot box; and voters have enacted measures to protect abortion access or reject restrictions in all but three states since the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision in 2022. At the same time, the election of Donald Trump to the presidency and Republican majorities in Congress puts abortion and reproductive health care access across the country in jeopardy. While explanations for this divergence are still emerging, what we know to be true is this: a significant majority of Americans – across demographic groups and political parties – believe that decisions about their bodies should be made by them, not the government.
Abortion Ballot Wins
Voters chose to strengthen legal protections for reproductive rights and access in seven states, including two states – Missouri and Arizona – that had an abortion ban in place. According to National Partnership analysis, that means 11.2 million women of reproductive age have new protections or stronger state protections, including nearly 3 million women who live in states that previously had abortion bans. American Indian and Alaska Native (AIAN) women especially saw gains from these ballot wins, with new protections impacting more than 100,000 AIAN women, 23 percent of all AIAN women of reproductive age in the United States.
Abortion Ballot Losses
In three additional states with abortion bans – Florida, South Dakota and Nebraska – reproductive rights ballot measures did not pass. Notably, the ballot measure supporting reproductive rights in Florida received support from 57 percent of voters – a strong majority – but just shy of the 60 percent threshold required for passage. In Nebraska, where there were dueling ballot measures related to abortion, voters amended the constitution to enshrine the state’s existing 12-week ban. This result is likely due in part to a strategic disinformation campaign intended to confuse and deceive voters about what that amendment would actually do.
Putting the Ballot Measure Results in Context
The Dobbs decision was years in the making, finally fulfilling the long-time ambitions of extremist politicians and anti-abortion activists, including those hand-picked to serve on the Supreme Court, and ignoring the direct, immediate, and long-lasting harm that the decision would cause across the country. Though the authors of that ruling claimed that the decision simply returned the issue of abortion access to the states, the reality of how our democracy functions – who has power, who gets elected, and whose voices are heard – has come into sharper focus in each election cycle. Our previous research has found that state-level landscapes for those seeking to protect abortion access are vastly different: states with a higher percentage of women legislators are more likely to adopt policies that provide abortion protections than states with a lower percentage of women legislators, and states where it is more difficult to vote have a greater likelihood of having enacted abortion restrictions.
Safeguarding abortion access through ballot initiatives is only possible due to the hard work and strategy of state-level organizers who labor under difficult circumstances, including voter suppression, administrative and logistical barriers, well-funded opposition, and more to ensure voters are heard and reproductive freedoms are preserved. This year, for example, organizers were forced to contend with last-minute legal challenges to the measure appearing on the ballot in Missouri, and a multi-faceted disinformation and intimidation campaign led by Florida’s Republican governor. And even for the states that successfully passed ballot measures, the battle is likely not over. More work, including litigation, will be necessary to ensure that the constitutional protections offered by these ballot measures are implemented and that state laws that are in conflict with these new protections are repealed. In places where the state legislature is hostile to abortion access, there may also be efforts to undermine the will of the voters, including, for example, by trying to strip state courts of their jurisdiction to enforce new constitutional provisions.
Moreover, while state ballot initiatives are an important stopgap to the cratering of reproductive rights brought on by the Supreme Court and other conservative movements and institutions, they are not alone enough to protect and expand reproductive freedom. Importantly, thirty-one states and D.C. – representing 63 percent of the voting-eligible population – do not have a direct citizen initiative process at all, meaning that those voters don’t have the ability to put an issue on the ballot regardless of citizen interest.
Where We Go From Here
The passage of state ballot initiatives to support abortion protections will protect millions of women in an environment hostile to their needs, but securing reproductive rights for everyone requires national action, especially as the incoming Trump administration threatens to undercut the work of organizers and the will of the people and to significantly rollback access to abortion and reproductive health care.
Importantly, though, while the presidential and congressional election outcomes complicate the fight for abortion access, they do not change this fundamental, abiding truth: women deserve full bodily autonomy, including the right to decide if, how, and when to start a family.
We don’t know what the future will hold, but we know that the Trump administration is poised to use every tool in the toolbox to dismantle protections, spread misinformation, and endanger the lives and well-being of millions – and, critically, we know how to fight back. We at the National Partnership will be watching for administrative actions, congressional activity, and decisions from our country’s courts; we will be working relentlessly to hold the line and protect the progress we have made; and we will be standing alongside the majority of voters who are demanding freedom.
Authors’ note: The authors are grateful to Ashley Emery and Mettabel Law for their support. See With Abortion on the Ballot in November, 16.5 Million Women Could be Impacted for demographic definitions and methodological information.
